So very simple

There is something awesome as well as chilling in the sheer simplicity of the strategy being pursued by (self-advertised) propaganda genius Dominic Cummings. All entirely predictable and (even by armchair Grumpy from Clapham here) predicted from the outset. Although not, it appears, by the majority of the media. The London Evening Standard (aka George Osborne) wrote yesterday that “it was a mistake to reveal your plan too early” and that Cummings had provided valuable strategic intelligence to his Remain opponents. But what new intelligence did yesterday’s text to the Spectator reveal that was not obvious already?

We are heading – as we always have been – for a khaki election of People v All-Comers (Parliament, Establishment, liberal media, Johnny Foreigner) in which Cummings and Johnson bet all on banging out repetitively the simple theme that the only hope for those who want Brexit done and dusted (forget the facts here – e.g. that No Deal means nothing near “done and dusted” – focus on the popular perceptions) lies in voting for the Conservative Party. However high the risks for them in such a strategy (e.g. the loss of the 13 Scottish seats, the loss of various Remain-leaning southern seats), it has clearly been the only feasible strategy for Cummings-Johnson to pursue. They probably will not pull it off (just as Trump will probably not pull off the feat of being re-elected next year on another minority of the popular US vote) but they just might. They stick with their own clear and oh-so-simple message and lure the other side(s) into some muddled messaging. This might activate enough Brexit-inclined floating voters to sneak them up to the magic 35% to 37% of the vote which in turn might just squeeze them into enough Leave-leaning northern and midlands seats to get a parliamentary majority.

So why be surprised when Cummings strides on remorselessly with his populist insults to all those important parties to the negotiation (Irish, French, Germans, Conservative MPs) to whom you are meant in conventional politics to be polite or at least diplomatic? Just as Trump does not give a fig for the response of the military and intelligence experts to his defiance of good strategic sense and long term US interests in northern Syria.

And certainly do not greet each disruption to the government’s deal negotiations as a nail in the Cummings-Johnson coffin. Pages of media coverage piling diatribe upon diatribe against the damage being wreaked by them achieves nothing for the main object, namely to take enough centre ground votes in key marginal seats away from the Conservatives at the election to prevent their achieving a parliamentary majority. I do not have the silver bullet to kill that simple Cummings message. It is always difficult to counter a clear and apparently proactive, positive one-liner: Get Brexit Done, Make America Great Again, Say Yes to Scotland, Take Back Control. But just greeting each setback to their (non) negotiations as a victory over their Brexit madness is certainly not the answer.

There is undoubtedly good hard work being done on the ground by Remain-leaning parties to enable wherever possible a clear run for the anti-Brexit candidate. The Lib Dems’ recent decision to stand aside for Dominic Grieve in Beaconsfield is an excellent example. This may be the election which is won by the detail in key marginals. Just as Trump won the 2016 Presidential election by outperforming the Democrats on the ground by a few thousand votes in five swing states. But it needs a clear message at the national level to support that local action. Does it need to go more precisely personal and dramatic? Identifying Dominic Cummings as the unelected Goebbels of today’s politics, the evil genius behind Boris Johnson’s convenient fool, bullying the 50% of the electorate who do not want No Deal. Just a thought. It certainly needs a message as simple and catchy as Get Brexit Done. What about Save The Future (from this Maniac)? Stay Sane, Vote Lib Dem/Green.